论文标题
COVID-19控制的挑战：短时间的时间短，干预措施的延迟很长
Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions
论文作者
论文摘要
如预期的，在发现有限的情况下，对COVID-19的扩散率的早期评估受到严重的不确定性，但现在可以进行更可靠的推论。在这里，我们从欧洲数据估计，预计Covid -19案例最初每三天将翻一番，直到社会距离的干预措施降低了这一增长，并且这种措施的影响通常仅在实施后九天（即三倍的时间）。我们认为，这种时间模式比对启动干预措施的基本繁殖编号的精确估计更为关键。这一观察结果对目前处于本地流行病的早期阶段的低收入和中等收入国家具有特殊的影响。
Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European data that COVID-19 cases are expected to double initially every three days, until social distancing interventions slow this growth, and that the impact of such measures is typically only seen nine days - i.e. three doubling times - after their implementation. We argue that such temporal patterns are more critical than precise estimates of the basic reproduction number for initiating interventions. This observation has particular implications for the low- and middle-income countries currently in the early stages of their local epidemics.
