论文标题
巴基斯坦的Covid-19-19：模型驱动的影响分析和指南
COVID-19 Outbreak in Pakistan: Model-Driven Impact Analysis and Guidelines
论文作者
论文摘要
在整个世界各地的Covid-19的迅速传播中，我们在不同可能的情况下对系统动态流行病模型进行了模拟。该模拟不仅捕获了病毒传播的模型动态，而且还可以照顾人口和流动性数据。该模型是根据特别是巴基斯坦的流行数据和事件进行校准的，可以很容易地概括。模拟结果非常令人不安，表明即使有严格的社会疏远和测试策略，并且在很长一段时间内（甚至超过一年），差异也会显着（成千上万）。真正的警报是，当这些措施中的某些措施在此期间短暂泄漏时，这可能会导致灾难性的情况，而数百万人将被感染。
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of the virus, but also, takes care of population and mobility data. The model is calibrated based on epidemic data and events specifically of Pakistan, which can easily be generalized. The simulation results are quite disturbing, indicating that, even with stringent social distancing and testing strategies and for a quite long time (even beyond one year), the spread would be significant (in tens of thousands). The real alarm is when some of these measures got leaked for a short time within this duration, which may result in catastrophic situation when millions of people would be infected.
