论文标题
2020年6月的欧洲国家的Covid-19扩展参数分析
Parametric analysis of COVID-19 expansion in European countries in the period of February to June 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
最小二乘拟合程序具有通用分析功能，分析了二十个欧洲国家的Covid-19疾病疾病数量的数据。鉴定和量化了疾病扩张的三个方案 - 早期指数扩张，降低了指数和线性扩张。量化了扩张期早期的国家之间的差异。指数制度的扩张速度在于与11个国家的平均价值的一个标准偏差。意大利最初的感染个体的数量过高，与平均值有7个标准偏差。 提出了用于预测基于参数空间中外推的扩展的方法。基于外推的一周预测在后来的意大利和捷赛案例中，平均精度分别为18％和29％。基于参数空间中外推的方法可以提供一种基本方法，以量化限制性措施对疾病扩散的影响。
The data on number of registered cases of COVID-19 disease in twenty European countries is analyzed by the least-squares fitting procedure with generic analytic functions. Three regimes of the expansion of the disease are identified and quantified -- early exponential expansion, damped exponential, and linear expansion. Differences among countries in the early expansion period are quantified. The velocity of the expansion in the exponential regime lies within one standard deviation from the average value for 11 countries. The number of infected individuals at the initial time is excessively high for Italy, 7 standard deviations from the average value. Method for predicting the expansion based on extrapolation in the parametric space is presented. One-week predictions based on extrapolations have average precision of 18% and 29% during the later period of the damped exponential expansion for the case of Italy and Czechia, respectively. The method based on extrapolations in the parametric space may provide an elementary method to quantify the impact of restrictive measures on the spreading of the disease.
