论文标题
社会疏远对印度共同流行病的年龄结构化影响
Age-structured impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India
论文作者
论文摘要
世界卫生组织（Who）宣布了这部冠状病毒（Covid-19）的新颖冠状病毒爆发。社会接触的结构批判性地决定了感染的传播，在没有疫苗的情况下，通过大规模的社会距离措施控制了这些结构似乎是缓解的最有效手段。在这里，我们使用一个年龄结构化的SIR模型，该模型与从调查和贝叶斯插入的社会接触矩阵一起研究了印度Covid-19的流行病的进展。基本的生殖比率R0及其时间依赖性的概括是根据病例数据，年龄分布和社会接触结构计算的。随后研究了社会距离措施的影响 - 工作场所不入学，闭幕，锁定 - 及其对持续时间的效力。发现一个三周的锁定不足以防止复兴，而是建议持续锁定的方案随定期放松。提供了预测，以减少年龄结构的发病率和死亡率。我们的研究强调了年龄和社会接触结构在评估缓解性社会距离的特定国家影响方面的重要性。
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures through large-scale social distancing measures appears to be the most effective means of mitigation. Here we use an age-structured SIR model with social contact matrices obtained from surveys and Bayesian imputation to study the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in India. The basic reproductive ratio R0 and its time-dependent generalization are computed based on case data, age distribution and social contact structure. The impact of social distancing measures - workplace non-attendance, school closure, lockdown - and their efficacy with durations are then investigated. A three-week lockdown is found insufficient to prevent a resurgence and, instead, protocols of sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation are suggested. Forecasts are provided for the reduction in age-structured morbidity and mortality as a result of these measures. Our study underlines the importance of age and social contact structures in assessing the country-specific impact of mitigatory social distancing.
