论文标题
关于意大利Covid-19的演变的注释
A Note on the Evolution of Covid-19 in Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
我们采用物理学中主要利用的方法，分析动态系统的演变，以研究意大利的COVID-19感染模式。我们采用的技术基于对逻辑功能及其导数的使用，即Hubbert函数。后者被利用以对每天感染的数量进行预测。我们还提到了利用其他数学工具的可能性，例如在Gompertz方程式上，对不同的预测能力进行了一些比较。
We employ methods largely exploited in Physics, in the analysis of the evolution of dynamical systems, to study the pattern of the Covid-19 infection in Italy. The techniques we employ are based on the use of logistic function and of its derivative, namely the Hubbert function. The latter is exploited to give a prediction on the number of infected per day. We also mention the possibility of taking advantage from other mathematical tools based e.g. on the Gompertz equation and make some comparison on the different predictive capabilities.
