论文标题
在中国，意大利和法国的COVID-19的分析和预测
Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France
论文作者
论文摘要
在本说明中，我们分析了中国，意大利和法国在时间窗口$ 22/01-09/03/2020 $的2019年冠状病毒病的时间动态。对简单日间地图的首次分析指出了流行病扩散中的某些普遍性，这表明可以有意义地使用简单的平均场模型来收集流行病扩散的定量图片，尤其是确认受感染个体的峰值的高度和时间。 对简单易感的（已确认）感染的死亡模型中相同数据的分析表明，描述恢复速率的动力学参数似乎是相同的，无论国家如何，而感染率和死亡率似乎更可变。该型号在3月20日左右在意大利将高峰置于2020美元$^{\ rm th} $ 2020，最多可确认的受感染人数约为16,000。
In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window $22/01-09/03/2020$. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic spreading, suggesting that simple mean-field models can be meaningfully used to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading, and notably the height and time of the peak of confirmed infected individuals. The analysis of the same data within a simple susceptible-(confirmed) infected-recovered-deaths model indicates that the kinetic parameter that describes the rate of recovery seems to be the same, irrespective of the country, while the infection and death rates appear to be more variable. The model places the peak in Italy around March 20$^{\rm th}$ 2020, with a maximum number of confirmed infected individuals of about 16,000.
