论文标题
使用大偏差理论分析电力系统中的大频率中断
Analyzing large frequency disruptions in power systems using large deviations theory
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种方法，以确定传统发电机的停电和可再生性波动的最可能原因，即达到预定水平的功率系统频率，而该水平被认为是系统操作员无法接受的。我们的系统频率模型结合了主要和二级控制机制，并假设常规中断会根据泊松过程发生，并且可再生波动发生在扩散过程之后。我们利用基于大偏差理论的方法，该方法从其所需水平中输出了大量频率的最可能原因。这些结果产生了一个见解，即当前可再生能源发电的水平并不能显着增加相对于常规故障的频率偏差的系统脆弱性。但是，对于各种模型参数，可能会随着可再生渗透率的增加而出现这种漏洞。
We propose a method for determining the most likely cause, in terms of conventional generator outages and renewable fluctuations, of power system frequency reaching a predetermined level that is deemed unacceptable to the system operator. Our parsimonious model of system frequency incorporates primary and secondary control mechanisms, and supposes that conventional outages occur according to a Poisson process and renewable fluctuations follow a diffusion process. We utilize a large deviations theory based approach that outputs the most likely cause of a large excursion of frequency from its desired level. These results yield the insight that current levels of renewable power generation do not significantly increase system vulnerability in terms of frequency deviations relative to conventional failures. However, for a large range of model parameters it is possible that such vulnerabilities may arise as renewable penetration increases.
