论文标题
定期淘汰在控制菲律宾的流感A H5N6爆发方面优于隔离和疫苗接种策略
Periodic culling outperforms isolation and vaccination strategies in controlling Influenza A H5N6 outbreaks in the Philippines
论文作者
论文摘要
高度致病的禽流感A H5N6是流感A H5N1的突变病毒，也是一种新的新兴感染，最近在菲律宾爆发了。 2017年H5N6爆发导致人口减少667,184只家禽。在这项研究中，我们将半饱和的发病率纳入了数学模型中，并研究了针对H5N6的三种干预策略：通过治疗，疫苗接种和修饰的剔除进行隔离。当$ \ Mathcal {r} _0 = 1 $时，我们确定分叉的方向，并显示所有模型都表现出正向分叉。我们管理最佳控制并执行数值模拟，以比较在家禽种群中利用不同干预策略的后果和实施成本。尽管采用了每种控制策略的挑战，但我们表明，与禁止和疫苗接种相比，在禁止爆发并避免进一步爆发感染的人群中，淘汰感染和易感鸟类是一种更好的控制策略。
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A H5N6 is a mutated virus of Influenza A H5N1 and a new emerging infection that recently caused an outbreak in the Philippines. The 2017 H5N6 outbreak resulted in a depopulation of 667,184 domestic birds. In this study, we incorporate half-saturated incidence in our mathematical models and investigate three intervention strategies against H5N6: isolation with treatment, vaccination and modified culling. We determine the direction of the bifurcation when $\mathcal{R}_0 = 1$ and show that all the models exhibit forward bifurcation. We administer optimal control and perform numerical simulations to compare the consequences and implementation cost of utilizing different intervention strategies in the poultry population. Despite the challenges of applying each control strategy, we show that culling both infected and susceptible birds is a better control strategy in prohibiting an outbreak and avoiding further recurrence of the infection from the population compared to confinement and vaccination.
