论文标题
时空宿主 - 载体流行模型的平衡和灵敏度分析
Equilibrium and sensitivity analysis of a spatio-temporal host-vector epidemic model
论文作者
论文摘要
昆虫传播的疾病是影响人类，动物或植物的昆虫携带的疾病。他们有可能在2015 - 2016年引起大规模爆发，例如寨卡病毒流行病，主要分布在美洲，太平洋和东南亚，以及2010年代由欧洲的细菌{\ it xylella fastidiosa}引起的多环球疫情。在本文中，我们提出和分析具有固定宿主和移动载体的空间解释隔室模型的行为，并传播了疾病。该模型基于部分微分方程系统的行为是通过对其平衡状态的理论研究以及使用全局灵敏度分析对其传递期进行的数值研究来互补表征的。在中等至长时间的时间范围内对疾病的监测和控制的含义讨论了结果。
Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and the multi-foci outbreak caused by the bacterium {\it Xylella fastidiosa} in Europe in the 2010s. In this article, we propose and analyze the behavior of a spatially-explicit compartmental model adapted to pathosystems with fixed hosts and mobile vectors disseminating the disease. The behavior of this model based on a system of partial differential equations is complementarily characterized via a theoretical study of its equilibrium states and a numerical study of its transitive phase using global sensitivity analysis. The results are discussed in terms of implications concerning the surveillance and control of the disease over a medium-to-long temporal horizon.
