论文标题
新颖的冠状病毒，2019-NCOV，具有高度传染性和感染力，比最初估计
The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
论文作者
论文摘要
新型冠状病毒（2019-NCOV）是最近出现的人类病原体，自2020年1月以来一直广泛传播。最初，基本的生殖数R0估计为2.2至2.7。在这里，我们提供了此数量的新估计。我们收集了广泛的个人病例报告和估计的关键流行病学参数，包括孵化期。将这些估计值和高分辨率实时人类旅行和感染数据与数学模型相结合，我们估计每2.4天后流行病期间被感染的个体的数量和R0值可能在4.7和6.6之间。我们进一步表明，仅有症状的个体的隔离和接触追踪可能是无效的，并且需要早期，需要强大的控制措施来停止病毒的传播。
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
