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Both experiments and direct numerical simulations have been used to demonstrate that riblets can reduce turbulent drag by as much as $10\%$, but their systematic design remains an open challenge. In this paper, we develop a model-based framework to quantify the effect of streamwise-aligned spanwise-periodic riblets on kinetic energy and skin-friction drag in turbulent channel flow. We model the effect of riblets as a volume penalization in the Navier-Stokes equations and use the statistical response of the eddy-viscosity-enhanced linearized equations to quantify the effect of background turbulence on the mean velocity and skin-friction drag. For triangular riblets, our simulation-free approach reliably predicts drag-reducing trends as well as mechanisms that lead to performance deterioration for large riblets. We investigate the effect of height and spacing on drag reduction and demonstrate a correlation between energy suppression and drag-reduction for appropriately sized riblets. We also analyze the effect of riblets on drag reduction mechanisms and turbulent flow structures including very large scale motions. Our results demonstrate the utility of our approach in capturing the effect of riblets on turbulent flows using models that are tractable for analysis and optimization.