论文标题
武汉新颖冠状病毒2019-ncov的基本繁殖数量的初步预测
Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV
论文作者
论文摘要
目标。-估计武汉小说冠状病毒的基本繁殖数（2019-NCOV）。方法。-基于易感性暴露感染的（SEIR）室模型，并假设症状的感染病例发生在2020年1月25日之前发生的症状发生，这是由自由繁殖而无需干预而导致的，我们估计了根据所报告的病例和其他研究案例的基本估计，以及某些案例的基本估计，以及某些研究的研究，以及某些研究的估算，以及其他研究的估计，这些案例是杂种，以及其他估计的估计。从严重的急性呼吸综合症中学到的。结果，通过使用有关2019-NCOV感染案件的人数的实时报告，基本的繁殖数量在2.8至3.3之间，并根据同事预测的受感染案件的数量在中国受到3.2至3.9的范围。结论。-2019-NCOV的早期传播能力封闭或略高于SARS。这是一种可控制的疾病，具有适中的可传播性。需要及时有效的控制措施来抑制进一步的传输。添加了注释。-使用新报告的流行病学决定因素2019-NCOV，估计的基本繁殖数在[2.2,3.0]范围内。
Objectives.--To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Methods.--Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before January 25, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome. Results The basic reproduction number falls between 2.8 to 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV infected cases from People's Daily in China, and falls between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from colleagues. Conclusions.--The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is closed to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate-high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to suppress the further transmissions. Notes Added.--Using a newly reported epidemiological determinants for early 2019-nCoV, the estimated basic reproduction number is in the range [2.2,3.0].
