论文标题
伊朗季节性降水的空间分析：与气候指数共同变化
Spatial Analysis of Seasonal Precipitation over Iran: Co-Variation with Climate Indices
论文作者
论文摘要
降水的暂时变化可能会导致世界各地的持续和严重的干旱或大规模洪水。了解降水的变化可以有效地帮助水资源决策者进行水资源管理。大规模的循环驾驶员对世界各地的降水有很大影响。在这项研究中，研究了ElNiño-Southern振荡（ENSO），太平洋十年振荡（PDO）和北大西洋振荡（NAO）对伊朗季节性降水的影响。为此，利用了103个具有至少30年数据的天气站。计算了前12个月指数与季节降水之间的长矛人相关系数，并提取了有意义的相关性。然后，确定了每个指数中每个指数与季节降水具有最高相关性的月份。最后，计算了由于这些指数中的每一个而导致的季节性降水的总体增加或减少。结果表明，南部振荡指数（SOI），NAO和PDO分别对季节性降水的影响最大。同样，这些指数对冬季，秋季，春季和夏季的降水影响最大。与PDO和NAO相比，SOI对冬季降水产生了不同的影响，而在其他季节，每个指数对季节性降水都有特殊影响。通常，不同阶段的所有指数都可以将季节性降水降至100％。但是，由于这些指数的影响，在不同季节，季节性降水可能会增加100％以上。这项研究的结果可有效地用于水资源管理，尤其是在大坝运营中。
Temporary changes in precipitation may lead to sustained and severe drought or massive floods in different parts of the world. Knowing variation in precipitation can effectively help the water resources decision-makers in water resources management. Large-scale circulation drivers have a considerable impact on precipitation in different parts of the world. In this research, the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on seasonal precipitation over Iran was investigated. For this purpose, 103 synoptic stations with at least 30 years of data were utilized. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the indices in the previous 12 months with seasonal precipitation was calculated, and the meaningful correlations were extracted. Then the month in which each of these indices has the highest correlation with seasonal precipitation was determined. Finally, the overall amount of increase or decrease in seasonal precipitation due to each of these indices was calculated. Results indicate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), NAO, and PDO have the most impact on seasonal precipitation, respectively. Also, these indices have the highest impact on the precipitation in winter, autumn, spring, and summer, respectively. SOI has a diverse impact on winter precipitation compared to the PDO and NAO, while in the other seasons, each index has its special impact on seasonal precipitation. Generally, all indices in different phases may decrease the seasonal precipitation up to 100%. However, the seasonal precipitation may increase more than 100% in different seasons due to the impact of these indices. The results of this study can be used effectively in water resources management and especially in dam operation.
